Parties and coalitions

Bush's approval rating falls to new low
WASHINGTON (AP) — More and more people, particularly Republicans, disapprove of President Bush's performance, question his character and no longer consider him a strong leader against terrorism, according to an AP-Ipsos poll documenting one of the bleakest points of his presidency.

The Presdent has been in the 30s before, and the CBS poll last week had him at 34%. According to Hacker and Pierson, so long as one is more concerned about the base than the median voter, that should not matter. However, the article continues:

Bush's job approval among Republicans plummeted from 82% in February to 74%, a dangerous sign in a midterm election year when parties rely on enthusiasm from their most loyal voters. The biggest losses were among white males.

An article in Today's Washington Post addresses the Congress-White House tension: party unites, but self interest divides (at least in an election year):

The president's weakness portends a tough battle for Bush's fellow Republicans who face a challenge from Democrats to their dominance in both houses of the U.S. Congress in the November midterm elections, political analysts say.

"The prospects look very grim for Republicans," said Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University. He said the poll numbers also bode poorly for key items on Bush's domestic agenda, such as immigration reform and his push to make tax cuts permanent.

Republicans will increasingly be forced to choose between loyalty to the White House and their own viability, Baker and other analysts said.

That is both supported and challenged by the USA Today article, mentioned above:

By a 47-36 margin, people favor Democrats over Republicans when they are asked who should control Congress.

While the gap worries Republicans, Cole and others said it does not automatically translate into GOP defeats in November, when voters will face a choice between local candidates rather than considering Congress as a whole.

In addition, strategists in both parties agree that a divided and undisciplined Democratic Party has failed to seize full advantage of Republican troubles.

Ah, parties as coalitions, performing that juggling act.